Strategic Reporting: A Formal Model of Biases in Conflict Data

During violent conflict, governments may acknowledge their use of illegitimate violence (e.g., noncombatant casualties) even though such can depress civilian support. Why would they do so? We model the strategic incentives affecting government disclosures in face potential NGO investigations, where disclosures, and support are endogenous. highlight implications for analysis conflict data generated from reports emergence transparency. Underreporting bias positively correlates with underreporting reports. Furthermore, exhibit greater relative to NGOs when higher investigative costs. also illustrate why it is difficult estimate negative effects on using data: large true effects, have conceal violence, leading attenuation bias. Finally, there a U-shaped relationship between costs payoffs.